Rapsradar

El Niño conditions are observed.*

Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

There is a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.*

Following three consecutive record production years, total Australian winter crop production is forecast to fall by 34% to 44.9 million tonnes in 2023–24. This is around 3% below the 10-year average to 2022–23 of 46.4 million tonnes. Yield prospects are forecast to be below average due to the expectation of below average rainfall for winter and spring.

Canola production is forecast to fall by 41% to 4.9 million tonnes, around 15% above the 10-year average. A significant downside risk to the 2023–24 winter cropping season is the potential for an El Niño event which is likely to result in below average rainfall across eastern Australia

Global crop trader Louis Dreyfus Corp said it will more than double the size of its Canadian canola crushing plant in Yorkton, Saskatchewan, the latest North American oilseed processor to expand.

A global drive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has prompted refiners to start building facilities to produce less-polluting renewable diesel from canola, soybeans and other feedstocks.

Some of Louis Dreyfus' Canadian competitors such as Richardson International, Cargill Inc and Viterra have already announced plans to expand canola crushing, raising questions about how much more of the yellow-flowering crop farmers can grow to supply the plants.

The union for the promotion of oil and protein plants (UFOP) to expend the cultivation of oilseed rape because of positive price signals. Support for the new sowing in August/September is also coming from strong demand from the biofuel sector.

The market section of the UFOP newsletter looks at the rollercoaster ride of prices against the background of last year's market supply. At the same time, an assessment is given for the new marketing year. According to this, a lower supply is to be expected in 2023/24 than in the marketing year just ended.  

ISTA Mielke GmbH is telling the weather conditions in North America and Australia will determine the price direction in the global rapeseed market in 2023/2024. In the EU-27 countries, the early harvest results indicate diverging rapeseed crop trends. While Romania is harvesting excellent, results in France and Germany have been disappointing. They are currently expecting an increase of rapeseed exports to 0.8 Mn T in July/June 2023/24 (vs. 9.57 Mn in 2022/23), while imports are likely to stay elevated at 5.6-5.7 Mn T this season.

The next international rapeseed congress (IRC) organized by the Global Council for Innovation in Rapeseed and Canola will be held in Sydney, Australia in September 2023. Every four years the IRC is held. It’s the peak of international conference for rapeseed R&D focused on advancement of global rapeseed production and utilization.